Digital Economy Layer — Architecture Specified

ARCHITECTURE-SPECIFIED · EMPIRICAL VALIDATION PENDING · 4 SIGNAL DOMAINS · SOVEREIGN BYPASS DETECTION · Touch globe to explore

DRAG TO ROTATE  ·  TAP COUNTRY FOR DETAIL

✕

Platform Methodology

L1 LOGISTIC REGRESSION · WALK-FORWARD OUT-OF-SAMPLE VALIDATION · 75+ SIGNALS · 2015–2024

What the ZF Score Is

The ZF score is a calibrated probability of sovereign crisis onset within a three-year forward horizon, expressed as a continuous value between 0 and 1. Higher values indicate greater structural fragility.

It is not a credit rating. It is not a narrative assessment. It is a forward-looking signal produced by a validated probabilistic model trained on past structural deterioration and tested on future unseen outcomes.

Crisis definition: IMF emergency financing program initiation or sovereign default event, as recorded in the IMF MONA database and supplementary default event databases.

Every ZF score is decomposable into its nine F-family contributions -- identifying which stress dimension is the primary driver at any point in time.

Four-Layer Platform Architecture

Signal Pipeline -- Raw Data to ZF Score

Signal Architecture

Validation History -- The Number Was Earned

Lead-Time Evidence -- Crisis Countries Are Structurally Distinct 3 Years Before Onset

Commodity Intelligence Layer -- Tier Structure

Falsifiability and Physical Layer

ZESI PHYSICAL LAYER -- SATELLITE SIGNALS

Industry Benchmark -- Walk-Forward Out-of-Sample AUC

Stress Signature — Crisis Configuration Detection

STRESS SIGNATURE OVERLAY · COSINE SIMILARITY TO CRISIS FINGERPRINT · AUC 0.781 · 24-EVENT SAMPLE · CONDITIONS INTERPRETATION OF ZF SCORE